Warning signs of collapse: What ancient Rome and science fiction can teach America today
From distracted citizens to rising autocracy, the United States is walking a well-worn path — just ask the Romans, or read Asimov
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Great powers rise, but they just as surely fall, tripping over the same faults time and again. The Roman Republic, once the bastion of republican ideals, gave way to an empire that would not fall to a single catastrophe, but to the slow rot of economic strain, political corruption, and a disengaged populace.
Today, the United States — long considered the modern world’s leading republic — appears to be straying dangerously close to that same trajectory. And if the fall of Rome wasn’t warning enough or history isn’t your thing, science fiction also provides food for thought. Isaac Asimov’s Foundation (Buy now: Affiliate link) opens with the decline of a sprawling Galactic Empire, where warning signs go ignored and hubris outweighs foresight. It’s fiction, but like all good fiction there’s a moral to the story.
The descent from democracy
Before it became an empire, Rome was a republic. Senators were elected, civic duty was valued, and power was theoretically balanced. But the system cracked as strongmen rose to power by stoking division and fear. Sound familiar?
Donald Trump’s rise to political prominence echoes the decline of Rome in troubling ways. His repeated challenges to the legitimacy of elections, his use of disinformation, and his open disdain for institutions meant to keep presidents in check are as dangerous as they are familiar.
Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon river to dismantle the Republic in the name of restoring order. Trump’s January 6th insurrection wasn’t just a chaotic and deadly protest — it was a modern-day echo of Caesar’s march on Rome. It revealed a segment of the population ready to reject democracy in favour of authoritarian power, so long as it aligns with their tribe.
A disengaged and distracted populace
In the final centuries of Rome, the masses were pacified with games and grain. Gladiator fights and subsidies dulled the civic instinct, replacing it with passive consumption. Today’s equivalent? Doomscrolling, Netflix, and the comforting algorithmic bubble of social media, where outrage is manufactured and real-world consequences feel distant.
No society collapses without the apathy of its people. Civic engagement is the lifeblood of a functioning democracy. Voter turnout in the U.S. remains woefully low, and many Americans can’t name their representatives, let alone explain how laws are made. This disengagement creates a vacuum easily filled by populist demagogues and self-serving elites who thrive in the absence of scrutiny.
Expansionism and economic strain
Empires often collapse under the weight of their own ambition. Rome’s reach eventually exceeded its grasp. Maintaining far-flung territories strained resources, and military campaigns drained the treasury while enriching only a select few. Over time, the empire became too big to govern effectively and too costly to sustain.
Russia, too, is buckling under the weight of its imperial impulses. Its war on Ukraine has exposed the fragility of its economy. Sanctions have strangled growth, with the aim of ensuring the cost of conquest is higher than any potential gain. This is what happens when empires chase glory without reckoning with consequence.
And while the U.S. hasn’t invaded territory with the intention of conquering it since the Philippine-American War of 1899–1902, Trump has foreshadowed it as an option vis-à-vis Canada and Greenland, and the U.S. has long extended itself globally in other ways — militarily, economically, and ideologically. While much of this global extension has been necessary to underpin U.S. hegemony and maintain the international rules-based order, it has consumed vast resources that could have addressed the domestic decay of crumbling infrastructure, unaffordable healthcare, and deepening inequality.
Just as Rome’s elites amassed land and gold while the masses struggled, modern America sees billionaires hoarding capital while millions live paycheque to paycheque. The wealth gap in America is unjust and unsustainable; it already exceeds the level of disparity in France before the French Revolution, and continues to grow.
The science fiction that saw it coming
In Foundation, Asimov imagined an empire so vast it had forgotten how it came to be. Its leaders ignored warning signs of decline, but mathematician Hari Seldon, through his fictional science of psychohistory, predicted the inevitable collapse and formed a plan to preserve knowledge during the dark ages to come.
It’s no accident Asimov modelled his Galactic Empire on Rome. He understood that knowledge, vigilance, and humility are the antidotes to decline. But America’s current trajectory suggests those virtues are in short supply. Conspiracy theories spread faster than facts. Expertise is ridiculed. Science is politicised. And leaders who should be preserving the republic are dismantling it, piece by piece, in exchange for short-term power.
A cautionary tale
America is not destined to fall. Decline is not inevitable. But the warning signs are clear, and they are not new. Democracies rarely end with a bang; most erode slowly, hollowed out from within until nothing remains but the illusion of choice.
Trump may not be Caesar, but he has revealed how easily American institutions can be manipulated and how fragile the system really is. His return to office has seen the slide toward authoritarianism accelerate and like Rome, America may wake up one day to find that the republic it once celebrated is no longer there.
Jonathan Meddings is an author and advocate from Melbourne, Australia.
