The realists are driving the bus, destination: war with China?

War is not inevitable, but it is becoming more likely

Illustration by Ilija Erceg, licensed through Shutterstock.

One of the perks of public transport is the peaceful silence during peak times, when everyone is surrounded by people but alone with their thoughts. Evidently one day I looked so at peace with mine that a colleague, who I hadn’t noticed was on the same bus, asked me once we’d disembarked what I was thinking of. “China invading Taiwan” probably wasn’t the answer she was expecting.

That was in 2021, although the subject had captured my attention while studying politics at Macquarie University years earlier. One of my former lecturers, Professor Lavina Lee, is among the five experts quoted in The Age and Sydney Morning Herald’s “red alert” series of articles that somewhat lowered the mood last week.

In short, they argue that:

1) China invading Taiwan would be a flashpoint that drags Australia into a war to support its ally, the United States;

2) that this will probably happen sooner rather than later given China’s stated intentions, narrowing window of opportunity with which to act, intelligence suggesting President Xi has told his military to be ready by 2027, and the United States reaffirming it would come to Taiwan’s defence if push came to shove…