Australia at the edge: How rising global chaos is reshaping our national security
With the world order collapsing, Australia must face hard truths and act fast to defend its future
The world is becoming more dangerous. Long-standing alliances are fraying and the international rules-based order is collapsing under the weight of brute-force geopolitics. Where once Australia could count on geographic isolation and stability provided by distant superpowers, today it stands increasingly exposed.
Australia’s luck is running out
For decades, Australia has relied on a benign international order to provide peace and prosperity. We’ve surfed the wave of globalisation led by the U.S., capitalised on China’s economic boom, and assumed our geography and strategic relationship with the U.S. would shield us from harm. But that order is collapsing — and we are dangerously underprepared.
Yesterday brought another reality check, with reports Indonesia was considering a request to allow Russian long-range military aircraft to operate from one of its air bases. Indonesia was quick to reject this assertion, but concerns are unlikely to subside given the country with a 1 million person strong military force has recently engaged in joint military exercises with Russia and joined the Russian-led BRICS forum in January.
Major shifts in Southeast Asia’s strategic posture are underway, and the deteriorating global security environment is no longer a distant threat; it’s immediate, and it’s close to home.
The world is fragmenting — and the consequences are real
Global stability is unravelling at multiple flashpoints. In Europe, Ukraine remains locked in a brutal war of attrition against Russia, draining Western military stockpiles and testing NATO cohesion. In the Middle East, the Gaza conflict has reignited wider regional tensions, drawing in actors like Iran and the Houthis.
The U.S. and China are drifting further apart diplomatically and economically. A new wave of tit-for-tat tariffs, restrictions on critical technologies, and nationalist rhetoric is hardening an economic Cold War that threatens to turn into a hot one. Trade, once the great pacifier, is now a weapon. The fallout could be severe for Australia, deeply enmeshed as it is in both the U.S. alliance and Chinese market.
These crises don’t exist in isolation. They’re symptoms of a deeper shift: the breakdown of American hegemony. We’re entering a multipolar world, where power is more contested, norms are weaker, and military coercion is increasingly back on the table. This is realism’s return.
Australia can no longer rely on distance, luck, or others
For much of its modern history, Australia has bet on three things: that our geography makes us hard to reach, that our allies will defend us, and that our prosperity will keep us safe. But geography means little against long-range bombers or hypersonic missiles. Allies are overstretched and may soon be preoccupied with their own crises. And prosperity, while important, is no substitute for hard power.
There are five things Australia must do with urgency:
- Invest in self-reliance. We need greater investment in long-range strike capabilities, missile defence systems, and cybersecurity. This is happening, but is it front-loaded enough given how rapidly the regional security environment is changing?
- Create a mobilisation plan. How long would our stockpiles last in a conflict? Are our procurement timeframes for materiel adequate to secure our defence? We must prepare for war while we do everything we can to avoid it, and a mobilisation plan is a key deterrence measure.
- Rebuild our diplomatic muscle. Australia’s foreign service has been hollowed out over decades. In a multipolar world, we need diplomats who can build coalitions and influence outcomes. Relationships with ASEAN, India, Japan, Pacific island nations and others must become more strategic and less transactional.
- Treat economic security as national security. We need a serious plan to diversify trade, secure critical supply chains, and protect key industries. Sovereign capability in areas like energy, rare earths, and defence manufacturing is no longer optional.
- Promote national cohesion. A divided, distracted, or misinformed public weakens our resilience. Government must be more transparent about the risks we face and the steps required. Public trust, civic literacy, and bipartisan consensus on security are strategic assets.
Time is short, and history is moving fast
We are entering what historian Adam Tooze and others have called a “polycrisis” — a world of overlapping disruptions, where threats multiply and reinforce one another. Australia, like many middle powers, must navigate this storm without illusions.
There is unlikely to be a quick return to something resembling the old world order. The challenge now is to survive, adapt, and protect our interests in a harsher reality. This means letting go of comforting myths and facing hard truths. It means planning for the worst while we continue to hope and fight for the best.
Australia still has many advantages. Our economy and democratic institutions are strong, and our resources vast. But as the tectonic plates of global power shift, we can no longer afford to be complacent when it comes to our defence capabilities. The strategic holiday is over, and the price of unpreparedness is growing by the day.
Jonathan Meddings is an author and advocate from Melbourne, Australia.
